Betting on the favorite in tennis

Betting on all tennis favorites, without additional selection, is unlikely to bring profit at a distance. Most often, the coefficients on them are unprofitable due to overloads. But there are a number of filters that will help you correctly select favorites for a bet.

Who are the favorite and the outsider in tennis

The favorite is the leader of the match according to the bookmaker. The coefficient of his success is always lower than that of his opponent. But sensations in tennis are no less common than in other sports, and outsiders with quotes of 2.50-3.00 and above regularly win.

According to this strategy, it is recommended to play men's tennis and favorites with odds from 1.50 to 1.79. Over 1.80, this is about equal chances of winning with a probability of less than 55%. Odds below 1.50 are not recommended to play at all, but if there is a suitable option with a close kef, it is permissible to put it through a minus handicap or an exact score of 2:0.

The essence of the strategy of selecting tennis favorites

You need to select favorites in men's tennis with suitable quotes, and then sift them through several filters. Selection criteria:

  • We skip bets on tennis favorites who play in a foreign country against one of the local players. Outsiders in the ”native walls" sometimes work wonders and put up fierce resistance even to the strongest players. Ideally, if the favorite plays at home himself.

  • We are removing those who have played more than 8-9 matches in the last two weeks. Especially if these games were held in other countries and, moreover, in other parts of the world. Such tennis players will inevitably have problems with the schedule and adaptation.

  • We also remove players who are significantly older than the current opponent. The difference of 5-7 years is still acceptable, but if the gap is ten years or more, an experienced athlete often can no longer cope with the pressure of the younger generation. Especially if he is already well over thirty years old.

  • We filter out athletes who play at a tournament that is not significant for themselves. Each competition has a level of prestige and if a regular participant of the ATP Masters suddenly came to the Challenger, then he is probably warming up. Exception: if he performed well here last time and came to defend the ranking points. It is also acceptable to take such favorites in the first round.

  • Next, we remove those who are not playing well against the current opponent or similar players. Especially on the current tournament coverage. Everyone has their own convenient and inconvenient rivals and coverings. Some play better on the ground, others on hard, and others play hard against lefties. These factors need to be taken into account and, if in doubt, it is better to skip.

A good recent example:

  • Coefficient 1.51,

  • The favorite plays at home,

  • Great game on the ground,

  • Confidently leads in PM 3:0,

  • The same age as the outsider,

  • Not overworked by matches,

  • I haven't left Europe for a long time.

As a result of the selection, there will be only a few options for a confident bet. The expected percentage of the strategy's passability is about 60-70%, which provides a Yield of about +5.5%. By the way, the reverse strategy also works great: if you bet against tennis favorites who do not pass these filters.